Saturday, December 25, 2004

2005!!!!

Jing ge bel, Jing ge bel....Jing ge all le way.........

Christmas is very different in Singapore. Unfortunately, I am too old to go out and have fun... So I have to stay here and wish you all, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!!! May this coming year be a prosperous and evil (i.e lots of dirty sex) for you.....

I hope, in 2005 (1) I can work less and go home early (2) Make more money with less work (3) Liverpool wins Champion League (4) Ronaldino breaks his leg (aiksss...choi...new year cannot say such things...) (5) KLSE breaks 2500 points

That will be a very good year la...

What are your wishes?

Junior

P/s: Blog will resume post 4 Jan 2005

Friday, December 17, 2004

www.cac.org.my

If you have known me long enuff, you'd know that I am not one who listens. Today is an exception:-

"The social instability and personal insecurity caused by corruption taints our economy and collective well-being."

Corruption, he argues, is caused more by bad systems than bad people. How true. If the system is not transparent, it provides opportunities for crooked officials to make money.Puvan says: "Human nature is tested when opportunity for profits exists -- when accountability is low and rewards are great; when fear of being caught is absent and when practice is condoned by silence." The latter is telling indeed. How long have we been silent observers when systems break down and greed takes control of people in high office?

I wrote on the bad people a few weeks ago during the China Aviation Oil saga. But I think my post/view was not comprehensive. It is indeed a bad system which leads to fraud and corruption. Please read the original article in full.

"Corruption practice is condoned by silence"

Well said, well said......fucking well said....

Junior

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

French Kiss in Public

I had the privilege to prepare food and do the cleaning up for the delegates of the Singapore Malaysia Forum at Grand Hyatt Hotel Singapore yesterday.

(No, Liama, there wasn't a single chick.......)

It is amazing watching these ministers - Mustapa, Hishamudin and the 2 ministers from Singapore sharing view on the stage. You can see that they recognise the global and geo political changes and they are very eager to work together. They are polite, straight to the point (i.e. not much rhetoric), honest and up front with many issues in 'Tamming' (i.e sweat talking) the business men in Singapore to visit Malaysia.

It is really like watching a divorce couple french kissing in public.

Amazing, Amazing, Fucking Amazing.

Just 18 months ago, we weren't sure if we could see the light at the end of the tunnel re the Singapore and Malaysia tie. At one stage, we advertised on news paper to say how bastards those singaporean ah, and Dr M had to mock the Singapore Government. YESTERDAY, I not only saw the light at the end of the tunnel, we are now running for shelter from the unstoppable love between the 2 countries.

Amazing, Amazing, Fucking Amazing.

Junior

Friday, December 10, 2004

Holiday Season

I have something to run in the next few weeks. Blog will be closed for renovation until NEXT YEAR. :D

Meanwhile, have a merry Christmas and a blessed new year....!!

See you in 2005...

Junior

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

We are doing very well. Serious!

Tuesday, December 07, 2004 - Strategic industries must remain in Malaysian hands, says DPM

PUTRAJAYA: The Government's investment holding arm, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, must ensure that strategic industries remain in the control of Malaysians while attracting foreign investors, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said. Although the Government was "very happy" with the marked interest shown by foreigners in the country's public-listed companies, it must ensure that control of those strategic industries remained in the hands of Malaysians, he said.


Najib was responding to concerns raised by some about the strong interest shown by Singapore companies in several Malaysian companies like Telekom and DRB-Hicom. “We must understand that when a company is listed on the bourse, anybody can buy their shares, not just by Singaporeans, but also investors from other countries," he said.

“On one level, we may perceive this as a success as this proved that these companies are doing well, but at the same time the Government is very sensitive to its implication particularly if it involves companies that hold strategic positions in the country,” he told reporters after delivering his keynote address at the CEO Summit 2004 on Tuesday.

I am really not a fan of our DPM. Sometimes, I feel that he does not have anyone clever behind him and his speeches or opinions are really not my cup of tea. I have only one question:-

How many really think that Singapore companies (or other foreign co) buy Telekom and DRB-Hicom because they are DOING WELL. THESE are really NOT WELL MANAGED COMPANIES, for goodness sake.......Please do not lie through your teeth.

On the contrary, they buy them for strategic reasons or they think they can do a better JOB!

Sigh....I cannot tahan already. I have to come back to work in Malaysia foodcourt liao, to set example!

Junior

KLSE

I am sure a lot of people shorted or have short the market since last Friday (some might even be earlier). I admire you because you dare to play future and you can SHORT the market.

Unfortunately, after nearly 50 years of independence, BSKLIAN (guys, new word, BSKL-IAN means one who play stock market in KL) still cannot short sell a particular stock.

But who can blame the government? When the syndicates RULE, who dare to allow those buggers to have a free hand?

Actually guys, if you want to short a particular share, you could do so. Very simple, let say you want to short Maybank. You just have to analyse the DELTA of the Futures and BSKL 100 index shares. Then:-

1. SHORT the futures
2. BUY all the rest 99 counters that are in the Index except Maybank
3. Make sure you buy the correct amount of contracts.

Then you can Short Maybank liao.

Me very clever ler......

Junior

Monday, December 06, 2004

Singaporean Girl are.....er......

I am speechless with this:-

THE sad existence of 300,000 white-collar workers in Singapore who can’t find wives was headlined in a recent report: “No money, no looks, no education”.
This has emerged as a national crisis because of the numbers involved. It is the cumulative impact of Singapore’s rapid economic changes, especially the fast emergence of the educated woman.


I can identify with what the writer was trying to say. I really can... especially the attitude of Singaporean girl. Sing girls dress up nicely and usually have nice body figure. They can be very composed and nice during your date, but on rare occasion (before marriage), you can tell from their little little behaviour that they are LION and er....er.........er.....'realistic' (?) . Once you fall in love with them, they are very different. VERY DIFFERENT. Simply put, they are not 'wife material'. They really are not. (you can tell that I really agree rite).

That is why I only insist on one-night-stand or casual sex with Singaporean girls. I have no choice. I really don't.......

:D

So, Ah Fa, Ah Ying, Lu Lu, Daisy and Fatimah, I am coming back soon. Wait for me ya...:D

Junior

p/s: VERY honestly, it is unfair to stereotype (wei, how to spell this ha?). I really have some very nice singaporean friend. But that is maybe because I dun know them well enough....:D


Sunday, December 05, 2004

Greed is good......?

China Oil Aviation loss more than $550 mm in trading losses. (Some reports say it is $900 mm). But it does not matter, 550 mm is still a lot of money to lose.

Wednesday 01 December 2004
'Speculative trading' is to blame for China Aviation Oil's losses
A Singapore-listed Chinese company that sources jet fuel for China is in deep trouble after losing $550 million in speculative oil trades, triggering concern over other China-linked stocks there. China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp's losses, announced by the company late on Tuesday, equal its market capitalisation of $549 million and raise serious questions about its future.


How can they loss so much money on derivatives trading? It is again due to another rouge trader - Chen Jiulin (well, he is not convited yet. So, this is just the general belief at this stage).

Who the hell is Chen Jiulin? I really have no idea. But I guess his english name should be Nick or Leeson. You might say, why all these bad things happen in Singapore ha? How come Malaysia dont have ha? Well, the answer is simple, because derivative trading is strictly controlled in malaysia. You do not have that many 'things' to play. That is why Liama is only playing futures (and his...er.............er..............2 inches...er........er.....nose...which is not so interactive). I said before, finance is a black box. Sometimes I really feel like buying some gold and keep it under my bed. Anyway that is not the point.

The point is, how could he do it? Dun forget, China Oil Aviation has this Compliance Committee, Audit Committee and Internal Control SYSTEM. It has everything under the risk management book. How could it fail? Well, if your CEO bends the rule, would you go and tell him 'hey, we should not do this you know, this is risky....'? You can have the best system, but the system is IMPLEMENTED by HUMAN. Human has one thing in common, they see high to worship, they see low to step on.

Unfortunately, Chen JiuLin is the CEO (ie. very high). A naive CEO, when you do not even have a stop loss price, you are worse than Mao-mi. Even my cat has a stop loss in trading. When you can keep the forest, why are you worried that you have no wood to burn? Also, if u ask me, I would bet my last single sen that this happened because the CEO Chen started his trading 'game' with some WINNINGS. Easy money is everyone's dream and usually win praises. There was surely a lot of incentive for him to perform. And trading options, futures were certainly the quick way. Once he started winning. He began to feel like god (whoa, I am writing as if I know him personally....)

Michael Douglas said something really 'cool-ly' in the movie 'The Wall Street'. He said - 'GREED IS GOOD".

Ya rite. Only if you are winning. But in many financial game, it is a zero sum game (actually stock market is not really zero sum game. Only futures and options etc) meaning - if someone is gaining, surely someone else is losing.

I would only say to CEO Chen, you deserve it because you dont even have a stop loss......and you think you know trading...

Junior

Saturday, December 04, 2004

Ball is round, eventually it will turn

I have been winning money on Chelsea and i like to bet on them. The reason is obvious.

Chelsea had a long consolidation (neh...all the 1-0 win ler), then had a BREAKOUT when they bot Roben. Selling pressure was absorb nicely when they led 2-0 with Bolton then drew 2-2 and the team bounced back from that match. THERE CAME THE BREAKOUT WITH VOLUME when they started winning 3 to 4 goals.

The uptrend is very obvious. WE JUST HAVE TO SWING WITH CHELSEA until the sign of reversal.

Arsenal is even simpler. If they win 1-0 today (they are leading 1-0), that is a good sign. It is a DOJI. Usually a sign of reversal. I will be more careful if they win 2-0..that is a neither here or there....ming bai ma?

I think Liama and Peg are probably the only 2 who understand what kok I am toking.....aikkss...ok la, KP also la :D

Junior

Here we go again.....

Some may say that this post is a few days late. You have to understand, you are reading from someone who just came back out to Kong Lake (aka KLSE) recently.., after missing 3000 ralies and made ZERO sens....:D

Anyway, with a stable US market and lower oil price.....i would like to declare that KLSE is now in the best time FOR ...............??? ........ GORENG!!!!!!!.

It is inevitable (KP, how to spell this huh?) that lower liners are playing catch up and we are already seeing that. Many syndicates who have been busy betting on football in the past 6 months are now finding the best time to make some angpow.

However, this does not concern us. The more speculative the syndicate, the BETTER.

We just have to SWING sama dia.....

er...er...Junior...how do you swing during a 'consolidation' phase wor?

Aikksss...swing the speculative counters la...not the index.......

Junior

Thursday, December 02, 2004

A Bumpy Ride? No Way

You know I was talking about AirAsia, don't you? I think the AirAsia IPO retail investors must have had this funny feeling in their heart. Imagine you subscribe to this IPO and then all the articles were saying how overvalued this company is bla bla bla (if you don't believe me, go to the Nomore Forum and look at that thread. All the articles and the forumners postings were talking how expansive the IPO was)...then the Merchant Bank refuse to disclose how many times the thing was oversubscribed then many made a big hoo haa about it bla bla bla (let me tell you, the oversubscription thing is just a STAGE. ALMOST All the malaysian listings oversubscription are just 'Stage' to lure stupid investors to buy that stock post IPO). But clearly, those who got the shares of AirAsia are laughing their head off all the way to the bank....no point toking, lets see the number.....

2 Dec Top Volume
AIRASIA 255670 1.690 0.190 12.67%
DIALOG 126857 0.560 0.025 4.67%
WCTLAND 125526 1.000 0.000 0.00%
MVEST 94713 1.280 0.090 7.56%
DIGISTA 90520 0.735 -0.015 -2.00%
SEAL 88804 1.090 0.010 0.93%
CBSTECH 70218 0.575 0.070 13.86%
JOBS 66574 1.360 0.210 18.26%

That is almost a 70% gain to those IPO retail investors! If you are some amateur retail investors pretending to know 'value investment', then you might annualise it and say 'WHOA, that is a 840% annualised investment!!!!!' (ok, la...kidding la).

I conceded very early in this valuation game. In fact some of you might remember that I said rite before the AirAsia IPO closing that I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO VALUE AN AIRLINES BUSINESS AND I DON'T BELIEVE IF ANYONE KNOWS. So I could only write on the branding side etc on AirAsia and they will win this price war thing with other airlines. I just did not know who to value an Airlines like AirAsia.

At least I did not pretend to know.

This is FINANCE. It is a self fulfilling industry and sometimes it is A BLIND LEADING A BLIND. If you want evidence, post a comment and email address. I will try to send you a reply.

Do you feel good now? knowing that finance (including KLSE) is just a black box?? :D

I met a top class Forex option trader the other day. He gave us a report on the hedging strategy. In the report he explained how the option etc could help us and how we could structure a exotic hedge etc etc. And there was this FX Outlook in the same report. The only comment which he made was that:-

'Don't look at that. We have never been rite about this'

At least I am not alone.......


Junior


Wednesday, December 01, 2004

Spam

Have u ever received spam? email? flyers? Postcards? Name Cards? letters? etc etc?

Which one is the most annoying?

SMS Spam

I hate SMS Spam. I hate it with a passion. I don't understand why maxis or M1 (in Singapore) have the rite to invade my privacy. SMS is for flirting. Whenever I receive an sms, I feel very horny....er......er....no...no...I mean 'cosy'...... Can u imagine my feeling when I found out that it is just a promotion or 'competition'?

The worst thing is that you cannot 'Un-subscribe' it. That is the WORST feeling. It is like 'Well, I am sorry. I will just keep annoying you'.

There was once I called the Maxis customer service center (I really did) and asked them to remove me from their 'mailing' list. The girl said she could not do that. There was no way to block that. Then I asked for the Maxis CEO's phone number so that I could send promotions that I was aware of to him. She refused to give. Then I asked for the phone number. She politely declined.......

BLOODY HELL, MANA boleh so unfair???

If anyonce has the phone number of Jamaludin Ibrahim, please post it here. I really want to ask him a few questions:-

'Want to eat Pizza ah? Got discount'

'Want to bet on football ah?'

'Want to win GREAT prizes ah?'

'Competition! Dun miss it!'

'Want to support Liverpool ah?'

I feel like Michael Moore now..... :D

Junior